Daniel Yergin Quotes
The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.
The bulk of extra supplies that could be put into the market come from two places. One, they come from other Persian Gulf suppliers, of which Saudi Arabia is at the top of the list.
We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.
So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.
To meet the energy challenge requires the most important energy of all - human creativity. That's the real prize.
People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.
A premium in the oil price of somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars a barrel reflects this heightened anxiety.
But eventually it's a question of access: Getting access to fields is on top of the oil companies' agenda. We see a substantial build-up of supply occurring over the coming years.
Even Silicon Valley investors have put well over a $1 billion in new energy technologies.
The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line.
Clearly, the Chinese need the resources, but I don't think they want to clash with the industrial world which happens to be the market for their goods.
People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4, 000 meters.